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Archive for March, 2012

McEwen Mining (MUX) Hits Buy Trigger

March 31, 2012 1 comment

I have been following McEwen Mining (MUX) the past few days on the blog. Today it just hit my buy trigger closing at $4.44, two cents above the 21-day exponential moving price average of $4.42. I will be looking to purchase Monday morning.

MUX Price Chart 3-30-12

MUX hits buy trigger

MUX has been in a long-term uptrend as you can see from the 5-year chart that follows.

More recently, during the past year, MUX has been staying within the bounds of an ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork. Each time the price has neared the bottom of the pitchfork, it has bounced either on the bottom of the pitchfork, or off the white sell trigger line.

The detrended 21-day exponential price oscillator had dropped below the bottom of the channel, but has now just climbed back within it.

Overall, I am anticipating MUX to continue to move upward in price.

MUX 5-year price chart

MUX, long-term, is in an upward price trend

As stated previously, MUX has been in a long-term upward price trend as seen in the chart to the left. It had reached a seriously overbought level as evidenced by the 21-day exponential moving price average remaining outside the top of its channel for a prolonged period of time.

However, more recently MUX has re-entered the price channel. For purposes of determining whether to purchase MUX or not the upper chart covering the past year is more relevant – as far as the buy trigger, than the longer-term chart.

Overhead price resistance is visible around the white lines at approximately $6.00 and $7.50.

Mux price chart

A different chart perspective on MUX price

The next chart (in black and white) provides a slightly different perspective on MUX.

It shows that MUX temporarily dipped below a sell trigger, but then crossed above that trigger and has now-re-entered the ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork. The price also managed to break above a downtrend that had been in place before March began.

My current strategy is to purchase MUX with a limit order of $4.50 per share. I will look to sell should MUX close below the 21-day moving average. Should this strategy change I will post an update.

MUX Chart

MUX data by YCharts

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

RIMM Reversal of Fortune

March 30, 2012 1 comment

As a former BlackBerry user, I have watched with fascination as Research in Motion (RIMM) has managed to lose its position as market leader.

Image representing Research In Motion as depic...

Image via CrunchBase

Unfortunately, for the RIMM stock price, the company has waited for too long to face the grim facts.

Research in Motion’s inability to face the challenges that faced it, led to a dramatic reversal of fortune. First, let’s look at the shorter-term chart.

RIMM Short-Term Chart 3-29-12

RIMM's declining stock chart

For a short time it looked as if RIMM might bounce off the bottom and begin to ascend in price. However, RIMM dropped through support and is now in a descending price channel.

The view is even more dramatic looking back over the past year.

RIMM 1-Year Chart 3-29-12

RIMM's stock price decline this past year has been spectacular

Who could have seen this coming? Well, perhaps, those who switched from BlackBerry to an iPhone or Android phone. Oh yeah, and Reggie Middleton.

Sears (SHLD) Stock Price not Done Falling

March 30, 2012 3 comments

A few days back I wrote how the long-term price trend for Sears (SHLD) was down.

Old logo of Sears

Old logo of Sears (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Especially, looking at a shorter-term chart, SHLD looks like it going to decline further in price.

SHLD 3-29-12

What's in the basement of Sears? Could be their stock price.

SHLD couldn’t break through the overhead price resistance of $80.00+ and headed lower. As you can see on the chart, SHLD had been in an ascending price “channel”. However, today, it fell out of that channel. Furthermore, the SHLD 21-day detrended price oscillator had climbed out of its channel and now appears poised to re-enter it and decline further. This should put SHLD price back within the downward pointing Andrew’s pitchfork where it would be reasonable to think the price would continue a slow decline.

Pulling the stock chart view all the way back 5 years provides some interesting perspective.

SHLD 5-year chart 3-29-12

Long-term, SHLD price trend is down

SHLD has not been able to break through and stay above the white price resistance line. It’s pretty remarkable when you see that the line that in the first chart appears rather briefly stretches back a full 5 years.

It’s also quite interesting that SHLD, stayed below its 21-day exponential moving price average for a number of years – yes years!

The detrended price oscillator looks different on the 5-year chart. SHLD only recently re-entered the channel, but could fall back out of it again.

However, I think whether or not SHLD falls below that channel or stays within it, the more important chart feature is that white line representing overhead price resistance steadily dropping over time. Until and unless SHLD finds a way to convincingly break through that line, the long-term downward price trend remains in place.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

 

JCPenney (JCP): Analyze This

March 30, 2012 2 comments
Would you buy a stock from this guy?

In light of the incredible falling price of JCPenney (JCP) stock, you might want to slap one of the stock “analysts” who set a target price for JCP of over $40.00. Then, slap the analyst again, for giving the stock a buy or hold rating. The fact is  many of these analysts are merely working the makeup counter for PigsRUs.

Buy side analysts often have some sort of vested interest in the stock. A buy side analyst working for a mutual fund or investment management company typically owns the stock he or she is covering.

(Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/stock-analysts.asp#ixzz1qaIAwY6p)

To me, it seems a bit like a potential sucker (er, customer) walking into a used car dealer and asking the liar (er, car salesman) anything about a car. Of course every car was driven by a little old lady, who only went to the grocery store once a week to buy Alpo for her and her dog. She polished the car every day with a cloth diaper and had all the recommended maintenance done on schedule. Or was the car owned by a hot-rodding teenager who liked to burn rubber and had no idea that you had to change the oil?

Anyhow, it doesn’t take the razor-sharp skills of a buy side analyst to look at JCP. Just go to your local JCPenney. Is there anything exciting about the experience without a giant discount off the price of the merchandise? Do you wake up Saturday morning and the first thought that goes through your mind is, “Yippee, I’m going to JCPenney”?.

Does anyone really think you can re-imagine JCPenney any more than you can visualize world peace?

You might think iPhones have little to do with selling housewares. But to hear Johnson tell it, it’s all about the mind-set and how a company approaches its customers. In a conference call, there were plenty of distinctively Apple-esque phrases used — “re-imagine,” “think differently” and “work creatively” to name a few.

The idea that Apple and JCPenney have anything to do with each other is absurd. Short of a going out of business sale, what is JCP going to do that is going to get a crowd of people wrapped around the block before the doors open. “Man, I can’t wait. JCP just got the latest shipment of Dockers!”

Steven P Dennis offers up some of the best analysis and criticism of JCPenney’s new strategy.

In Part 1 Dennis takes apart the pricing strategy:

First of all, unlike Nordstrom, every promotional retailer like Penney’s (and Sears and Macy’s and Bed, Bath & Beyond, etc.) has taught their customers–over many, many years–that their “regular” price is a sucker price. Reversing this perception will not happen quickly, no matter how creative your new ad campaign is and no matter how much money you throw at it in the first few months.

In Part 2 Dennis takes apart the re-invention of JCPenney:

While I have no doubt that Penney’s can benefit from many of the leadership lessons and certain tactical aspects of Apple’s retail strategy, Penney’s ain’t Apple. It’s a lot easier to build retail stores around products that are in high demand, have limited distribution and “fixed” high margins. Apple is a single brand specialty store with a clear tribe of loyalists, not a multi-brand, multi-category store serving an incredibly diverse set of customers.  Apple is vertically integrated and the stores benefit directly from total brand advertising–and a ton of buzz. All of Apple’s stores are in “A” real estate locations and have a tight prototype and are not unit intensive. The list goes on and on.

In Part 3 Dennis looks at the slick marketing versus the sad reality of JCPenney stores:

In the short-term, the work of marketing is to get the target customers’ butts in the store (or drive them to the website). I suspect the new campaign IS elevating interest in JCP and starting to drive incremental traffic. Yet while Penney’s has improved their presentation markedly, the stark reality is that both the product assortments and overall experience are still pretty much the same–i.e. unremarkable in most instances. And unlike Apple and Target, Penney’s store fleet is a grab bag of some very good locations with a whole bunch of mediocre and lousy ones.

We all know that when the invitation is better than the party, we aren’t very likely to get fooled the next time around.

It’s not likely that once customers get pushed to the local JCPenney by the latest Ellen Degeneres ad, that they will be dancing in the aisles.

http://cdnapi.kaltura.com/index.php/kwidget/wid/1_43rfgjve/uiconf_id/6501231

The latest JCP charts aren’t anything to get excited about either.

JCP Chart 3-29-12

Hey JCP, $40 is the other way!

JCP stock price still is below the sell trigger line and also within a downward-trending price channel. I don’t care what Herb Tarlek the buy side analyst says, the price of JCP will go down until it manages to break out of the current chart pattern.

JCP stock price still falling

JCP: No dancing in the aisles here

So, despite what Herb Tarlek buy side analyst might say, and despite the star power of Ellen Degeneres, the JCP stock price is going down. How long the downward trend continues remains to be seen, but the charts are clear. You don’t need to be a stock analyst or an expert on retailing to see that it won’t be easy for JCP to hit the $40.00 target analysts are expecting. Just go down to your local JCPenney and compare the vibe to an Apple Store or even the local Target. Trust your gut. Use your common sense. That’s something Herb the buy side analyst will likely never do.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

McEwen Mining (MUX) Watch this Space

March 29, 2012 2 comments

Image

Despite the recent drop in price, McEwen Mining (MUX) is still within the upward trending Andrew’s Pitchfork.

The detrended 21-day price oscillator is still near the zero line.

Should the price close above the 21-day exponential moving average (the blue line on the price chart), I plan on pulling the trigger on this one.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

On the Emptiness of Getting and Being Noticed

March 27, 2012 Leave a comment

Via Steven P. Dennis:

I wonder what would happen if we all cared a bit less about looking good and relaxed our grip on the past.

I wonder what would happen if just for a day we abstained from any “hey look at me” activity and spent just a bit more time listening and connecting from a position of compassion and generosity.

I wonder what would happen if we added a few more books to our library and didn’t care whether anyone else knew.

What better time than now?

Full post is here.

Categories: Uncategorized

JCPenney (JCP) Stock Price Slaps Back

March 27, 2012 2 comments

Looks like the JCP stock price chart just got a little more interesting.

JCP Stock Price 3-27-12

JCP stock price just peeking out of descending price channel

JCP stock price is just peeking outside of the descending price channel and also right above the sell trigger line it had fallen through previously.

However, we’ll have to wait to see how the JCP stock price closes to better assess this chart.

Despite the nice bump up in price, JCP is nowhere near the Andrew’s Pitchfork that it fell out of a couple of weeks ago. The price would need to close above the blue 21-day exponential moving average on the price chart to convincingly indicate that the price will rise further.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.