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Bitcoin Price Falls: How Low Will it Go?


After pushing to near (or above depending on your source) 5000, the Bitcoin price has begun to move substantially lower – trading below 4300 as this is being written. Many people, especially those who are new to Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, are likely worried about where the price is headed. Fortunately, this was discussed in Bitcoin: Caution Ahead published on August 31, 3017.

With the crypto world buzzing about Bitcoin approaching the 5000 level, its progress has seemed unstoppable. However, there are some signs of frothiness. In my own local community the owner of a computer networking and repair business has started giving classes on investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. The locals are discussing investing in crypto currencies, wondering which ones are the best to profit from.

But, more importantly than anecdotal evidence that there may be some temporary frothiness in the market are cyclical concerns. In fact, as Bitcoin nears the 5000 to 5500 level, the risk increases that the price will dip to around the 2500 to 2700 level.

Bitcoin has already broken through the initial resistance discussed in that post.

Additional resistance can be discovered by constructing a pure base 60 grid based on the current price level of Bitcoin.

5/5 – 6703.37

4/5 – 6310.69

3/5 – 5918.02

2/5 – 5525.34

1/5 – 5132.67

0/5 – 4740

The next base 60 grid is:

5/5 – 4740

4/5 – 4462.33

3/5 – 4184.67

2/5 – 3907

1/5 – 3629.34

0/5 – 3351.68

Potential dual-support is at the 3629.34 and 3907 levels.

Barring Bitcoin blasting through the 5400 – 5500 area, the expectation is that it will slide towards to 2500 – 2700. Once near that level expect Bitcoin to rebound and start working its way toward the 10000 level.

Bonus: This isn’t why the Bitcoin price dropped:

Sorry, it’s not the China

Yes, it always seems there has to be a “reason” for price movements to happen. Price movements happen based on cycles. There are many cycles ranging from climate to war, economic to fashion. Price isn’t unpredictable and it isn’t a random walk. Yes, predicting something like will the price of Bitcoin be up or down tomorrow can be tricky. Using Probable Price Ranges (PPRs) to bracket the day’s movement is simpler and, over time, can give a good idea which direction prices are moving. I wrote my post Bitcoin: Caution Ahead saying that near 5000 Bitcoin would reverse and head to around 2500 to 2700. The Chinese Government didn’t call me on the phone to let me know they would not legalize Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). However, understanding cycles, probable ranges and Murrey Math allowed for the creation of the Bitcoin Price Road-Map on August 13th much ahead of when China supposedly “caused” the Bitcoin price to drop.

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