Archive for the ‘Retail’ Category

Target (TGT) Stock Price Breaking Down?

April 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Looks like the Target (TGT) stock price is breaking down. Here is the TGT 1-year stock price chart.

Target TGT 1-year stock price chart

Target TGT stock has been overbought recently

It appears that the TGT stock price is moving from a overbought status as demonstrated by the channel in the bottom chart. Whether this will continue is unknown, but it seems likely.

Now, let’s look at the TGT 5-year stock price chart.

Target TGT 5-year stock price chart

Target TGT stock price may not reach much higher

It appears that around the $60 level, TGT has difficulty breaking through. Also, for the past several years, TGT appears overbought. At these price levels, I don’t think I would be looking to purchase TGT as it does not appear to have much room to rise, and may – in fact – fall more in price.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

JCPenney (JCP) is a Bad AAPL

April 9, 2012 4 comments

How much absolute crap has the public been fed about how JCPenney (JCP) was going to miraculously transform themselves into the AAPL of retailing? JCP was going to become our favorite place to shop, or some, B.S. But, it is looking more and more like all of the buy-side stock analysts that urged suckers, er investors, to purchase JCP stock and ride it all the way up to $40 or $42 per share were full of baloney. Seems to me that you can’t have junk, or crap, if you don’t have JCP.

To see how ludicrous predicting a plus $40 JCP stock price, take a look at the JCP 5-year stock price chart.

JCPenney JCP 5-year stock price chart

Apparently, stock analysts calling for $40 plus JCP stock price never saw this chart

After all, with the huge economic boom brought about by quantitative easing Helicopter Ben Bernanke and the boys at the Federal Reserve, why wouldn’t JCP stock reach into the heavens?

Instead, Icarus-like, JCP stock price got a little too close to the sun and is now falling back to earth.

JCPenney JCP 3-month stock price chart

JCP: But the stock analyst said it would go to over $40 per share...

I hate being lied to and I find it annoying when people can’t see the obvious. What in the world would make anyone believe that JCP and AAPL should be spoken in the same breath, much less that JCP will somehow transform its snoozapalooza anchor mall locations into Apple Stores?

Who came up with the crank concept of creating “a store within a store”? I prefer to call the strategy concentric circles of hell, but that’s me.

If I were in charge of JCPenney I would have closed down the unprofitable and marginal stores and remodeled every one of the crap mall locations like I have in my town. Instead of the traditional “rat searches for a piece of cheese strategy” whereby JCPenney makes its poor customers wander around aimlessly hoping to encounter what they are looking for, I would make it easy to shop there. The store would be open with signs indicating each department – not “store within a store”.

Employees would have a distinctive uniform in order to separate them from customers. Employees would not be allowed to hide from customers while they attempted to look busy folding clothes. In fact, employees would be required – in a not-too-aggressive manner – to make contact within second with each customer who came into their department. There would be something akin to a shopping assistant who would be certain to ask you if you found what you were looking for today, and if you answered “no” would offer to order the item and have it either shipped to the store or to your home. Cash registers would be clearly labeled and colored distinctively so they stood out from anywhere in the store.

When customer checked out they would again be asked if they found the items they were looking for. If not, there would be a kiosk-type display where an employee would find the item and offer to order it or – if the item was in stock – would go pick it up and bring it back to you.

Old line retailers like JCPenney, big box retailers like Lowe’s lose incalculable sums of money because they treat customer more like a nuisance than like the lifeblood of their business.

JCPenney’s silly junk marketing of everyday low prices, and crap ideas of becoming Apple are beyond wishful thinking. There is almost no hope that JCPenney will ever, ever, ever come close to achieving those ridiculous ideas. JCPenney could, however, offer a pleasant shopping experience with excellent customer service and grow its incremental sales. That is a tried and true method that, combined with taking advantage of the Internet, could prevent JCPenney from eventually meeting with the fate that awaits Sears and K-Mart. However, I doubt the CEO and many Senior Vice-Presidents will take the time to look at what really might work, and will instead continue to pump AAPL pie-in-the-sky ideas while watching JCP stock slide.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

Amazon-ed by Subscribe and Save Pricing Games

Image representing Amazon as depicted in Crunc...

Image via CrunchBase

I like Amazon. I have been a customer for years. Like many, I shop online for the convenience, pricing and to purchase items that are no longer available, or are have undergone significant price increases.

So, for me, Amazon’s Subscribe & Save feature has been great. But lately I have noticed a trend. Amazon is constantly changing their prices for the items that I subscribe to. Sometimes the price moves down, but often it moves up. Amazon has also developed a nasty habit of no longer offering the items I subscribe to, and the alternative choices, more often than not, come in smaller quantities and at a higher per unit price.

Amazon’s tactic appears to be, reel you in with a low-ball price and then, when you’re not looking, raise the price. Recently they cancelled my subscriptions to Charmin Ultra Mega Roll and Bounty Huge Roll. This actually worked out for the better, as upon checking the price at Sam’s Club, I learned I could buy both items for less per square foot there than through Amazon.

I understand that Amazon already has a very low profit margin and that they are delivering these items to my door. However, Amazon surely must realize that they are in the same position as Wal-Mart. I shop at both businesses not because I am enamored of them, but because they offer a low price. Once they no longer offer the lowest price – and failing to offer anything else of real value – I am gone.

The thing is, I’m tiring of getting Amazon-ed. Just like Wal-Mart went from offering the lowest prices, and displaying competitors ads at the checkout, to a more everyday low prices (translation: catch us screwing you on price if you can) model, Amazon is attempting to change their strategy. However, Amazon isn’t offering me anything else of substantial value other than price. They have painted themselves into a corner. They won me over with low prices and they have nothing else to woo me with.

Amazon, if you’re listening (and why would you be?) keep changing your Subscribe & Save prices and I’m going to game your system. I’ll cancel one subscription and replace it each and every time with the lower priced alternative. I’ll keep comparing you to the competition and cancel each subscription that is higher priced. I have already begun shifting some of my video rental business to Google Play. Then, when you Amazon me one too many times, I’ll cancel all of my subscriptions and avoid buying from you whenever possible. Keep playing the game. You have a gazillion items to choose from, but I have something you want – money. Amazon, it’s up to you – I’m getting tired of being Amazon-ed.

Update: 4-7-12

Made my first purchase of a book from Google Play. Purchased Russell A. Barkley’s Taking Charge of Adult ADHD.

To an extent I hate to hand Google even more information about myself in case they end up being “evil”. At the same time, I’m not sitting still for Amazon’s Subscribe & Save pricing games. So I guess we’ll play a version of Hunger Games – me denying my few crumbs to the giant.

It might not make a big difference on an individual level, but if more people do the same, Amazon might catch a clue.


JCPenney JCP: Fantasy Stock Target Price, Fantasy Turnaround Plans

April 2, 2012 1 comment

JCP Chart

JCP data by YCharts

So much chart real estate, so little time over $40.00. Yet, so many stock analysts think JCPenney JCP is a $40.00 plus stock. If you clicked on the link above you’ll find the consensus JCP stock price estimate is $43.00. Yes, $43.00. Take a look at the chart above. how much plus $40.00 JCP stock price days do you see? Not many. Yes, that last price is $35.76. Kind of makes the low-ball $29.00 JCP analyst look a little brainier (or more honest) than the rest.

This kind of maddening stock price analysis is why I want to slap a JCP stock analyst and then slap the stock analyst again.

I’m no Ivy League educated stock guru, but does it take one to read a the JCP stock chart?

I’m not the only one who sees through JCPenney’s lame effort to become the Apple of retailing, everyone’s favorite store, or whatever brain dead slogan they have come up with the help of their army of senior-VP’s recruited from Target.

Steven P Dennis does yeoman’s work analyzing the river of B.S. emanating from the JCPenney corporate communications department here, here, and here.

Yes, nothing makes an old, stodgy and boring retailer like JCPenney more nimble like a whole other layer of VP’s to muck everything up.

But, back to the chart’s, here is a look at the JCP 6-month stock price chart.

JCPenney JCP 6-month stock price chart

JCP: Whee! We're a $40.00 stock and then we're not.

While the price of JCP has slid recently, looking at the 21-day detrended price oscillator at the bottom of the chart, it is currently very oversold, so we should expect it to bounce back somewhat.

It is important to note, however, that JCP has strong overhead price resistance around the $40.00 mark – just where so many stock analyst are convinced it will break through. Why? I’m not sure.

In addition, the JCP stock price fell through the bottom of the purple colored Andrew’s Pitchfork and crossed the white sell trigger line. The sell trigger line and then, the bottom of the Andrew’s Pitchfork, become price resistance.

So, JCP has a long, long way before it even gets close to $40.00.

Now, let’s look at the JCP 5-year chart.

JCPenney JCP 5-year stock price chart

JCP: I see, I see JCP struggle to break forty.

On the 5-year JCP stock price chart, if you look at the white line on the 21-day detrended moving price average chart, you’ll notice JCP has rarely peaked up over the $40.00 price line. Aren’t those JCP stock analysts sunny optimists?!? “This year is going to be the year!” they shout as they lick their giant lollipops and gallop off on their broomstick horses.

In contrast to the 6-month chart, the 5-year chart indicates that long-term the JCP stock price is still overbought. Ouch! So, while we may get a head-fake uptick in price, expect the medium-to-long-term price trend to be down rather than up.

J. C. Penney

J. C. Penney (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Plus, with fantasy concepts such as a “store within a store” which I liken to concentric rings of Hell, JCPenney’s “plan” to revitalize their business with “everyday low prices” is as unbelievable as the stock analysts’ $43.00 JCPenney stock price target.

Sears SHLD Continues Price Slide

April 2, 2012 1 comment

SHLD Chart

SHLD data by YCharts

Despite the recent trip up to over $80.00, Sears SHLD continues to be in a long-term price decline.

But first, let’s look at a 1-year price chart for SHLD.

Sears SHLD 1-year price chart

Sears SHLD stock price rediscovers gravity

As the saying goes, “Gravity is a bitch”. After defying gravity over $80.00, Sears bounced over long-term price resistance represented by the white line. It is now being pulled down into the purple colored Andrew’s Pitchfork below.

The bottom part of the chart is the 21-day detrended price oscillator which basically indicates that Sears was overbought, but has now re-entered the channel, where we might expect it will journey down – eventually – to oversold status should it exit out the bottom of the channel.

Now, for the 5-year SHLD price chart.

Sears SHLD 5-year stock price chart

From the softer side of Sears to the softer side of SHLD stock price

The SHLD 5-year stock price chart reveals Sears has failed multiple times to cross the overhead white price resistance line.

The exterior of a typical Sears Essentials store.

Until, or unless, it manages to convincingly penetrate price resistance, expect Sears to continue its steady price descent long-term. While there may be shorter-term opportunities to trade the stock it doesn’t appear to be a long-term buy and hold opportunity.
Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.