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Elements of the Probable Price Range (PPR)

August 21, 2017 23 comments

Below is a, hopefully, brief outline of the elements behind the Probable Price Range.

1. The square root.  The expected maximum daily price move of a stock, commodity, etc. is the square root of its price. For example √9 = 3. So, a $9.00 stock might move as low as $6.00 during a trading session or as high as $12.00. While such a move may not be likely, it is mathematically within the realm of possibility. How square roots are used within the Probable Price Range (PPR) is much more complex and nuanced than the above example.

2.Action-Reaction. Alan Andrews discusses the idea in the video below:

Alan Andrews developed, his Andrews’ Pitchfork, at least in part, based on the Action-Reaction work of Roger Babson. In terms of the PPR, Action-Reaction is relevant because price movements up and down must eventually achieve some sort of balance. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a $10.00 move up must be balanced by a $10.00 move down, but movements must eventually achieve a kind of balance. At a later date we will discuss more about this in terms of our Balanced Price Ranges (BPR).

3. Golden Mean aka Golden Ratio. The Golden Mean or Golden Ratio has an important role to play in determining the extent of price movement. It will tend to restrict prices from moving to the maximum extent that is possible as determined by the square root of the price. The Golden Ratio is also important as it relates to our Positive/Negative Ratio (PNR) and Negative/Positive Ratio which we shall discuss another time.

4. Another important factor to consider when looking at a Probable Price Range, or in any type of price forecasting, is to use some means to account for momentum of price movements. This is related to physics, geometry, and the squaring or balancing of time with price which W.D. Gann discussed.

5. Murrey Math. It would be impossible to discuss Probable Price Ranges without Murrey Math. Murrey Math is essential not only in terms of understanding support and resistance levels (assuming you’re attempting to invest based, in part, on the PPR), but it is also extremely important in terms of understanding price cycles. In fact, there are at least two cycles related to Murrey Math. One is the Standard Cycle where price moves in a more or less orderly and predictable manner. The other is the Phase Cycle where an increase or decrease of energy, or momentum, in the system causes price to move up or down to another level.

The above is only part of what goes into the calculation and construction of the Probable Price Ranges or PPRs seen on this site. Hopefully it will give you some small insight into the construction of these ranges and a base to work from should you decide to construct something similar on your own.

 

 

 

Categories: Uncategorized

Gold Probable Range Update for 8/3/2017

August 5, 2017 Leave a comment

Probable Low: 1250
Probable High: 1287.95

Clinging to your guns and religion? You might be a Right Wing Extremist.

You Might Be A Right Wing Extremist...

Still clinging to your guns and religion? You might be a right wing extremist.

Yes, you caught me. I support the entire Bill of Rights including the 1st and 2nd Amendments.

Amendment I:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Amendment II:

A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.

We used to call people who defended the Constitution and Bill of Rights citizens and patriots. Now we call them right wing extremists. I guess that is what I am and darn proud to be.

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Categories: Uncategorized

Insist we live in a Republic? You might be a Right Wing Extremist.

You Might Be A Right Wing Extremist...

If you insist that we live in a Republic and not a democracy, you might be a right wing extremist (RWE).

Check out the video below. It argues that there are only two enduring forms of government – republics and oligarchies. Which one do you believe we currently live under?

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Categories: Uncategorized

In this blast from the past Stacy McCain riffs on a few things that might get you considered to be a Right Wing Extremist.

You Might Be A Right Wing Extremist...

Let’s get this party started with Stacy McCain’s riff of You Might Be a Right Wing Extremist.

This was delivered by The Other McCain in April 2009 at the Birmingham Tea Party.

Some highlights as reported by The Liberty Papers were:

You might be a right-wing extremist if . . .
. . . you refuse to bow to Saudi royalty.
. . . you think the only good pirate is a dead pirate.
. . . you don’t think it’s a good idea for politicians in Washington to borrow another trillion dollars you grandchildren will have to repay.
. . . you think you know how to run your life better than a bunch of ‘experts’ in Washington.
. . . you believe in God, but don’t think that Obama is the Messiah.
. . . you believe the only reason you have First Amendment Rights is because of…

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Categories: Uncategorized

On the Emptiness of Getting and Being Noticed

March 27, 2012 Leave a comment

Via Steven P. Dennis:

I wonder what would happen if we all cared a bit less about looking good and relaxed our grip on the past.

I wonder what would happen if just for a day we abstained from any “hey look at me” activity and spent just a bit more time listening and connecting from a position of compassion and generosity.

I wonder what would happen if we added a few more books to our library and didn’t care whether anyone else knew.

What better time than now?

Full post is here.

Categories: Uncategorized

Draghi, “the wurst is now over”

March 24, 2012 Leave a comment

Sausage making

Confirming what many of us already suspected…you don’t really want to know how sausage is made, especially in Europe.

Via The Slog:

“The worst is now over,” proclaimed Mario Draghi yesterday. An excellent comment thread here suggested that this was a misunderstanding, in that Signor Draghi is fond of German sausages, and as he swallowed the last of his snack, said “the wurst is now over”.

But The Slog’s Frankfurt Mole is of a different opinion.

“What we are now seeing,” he began, “is instability in the larger [EU] sovereigns. We always knew this was going to happen, and it is coming to pass. Spain has clearly decided to kick back, and there is an interdependence between Iberia and Italy that is not well understood. We are also going to see massive losses throughout all EU and US banks this time. Further obligations and so forth will then emerge, and for the eurozone it will be the end. Signor Dragi could try and print his way through further bailouts, but we hold all the cards now. Berlin simply will not allow it. It doesn’t matter any more that the [EU] Central Bank is legally beyond the law….it is not beyond reality. The eurozone will shatter once this impasse is reached. In my estimation the situation will be critical before the winter comes.”

Sausages, snausages…one way or the other, with all of the insolvent banks holding worthless assets and central banks pressing CTRL+P over and over, we’re all going to end up with indigestion.

If all else fails, hit CTRL+P

The Fed: In case of emergency hit CTRL+P