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Posts Tagged ‘detrended price oscillator’

Target (TGT) Stock Price Breaking Down?

April 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Looks like the Target (TGT) stock price is breaking down. Here is the TGT 1-year stock price chart.

Target TGT 1-year stock price chart

Target TGT stock has been overbought recently

It appears that the TGT stock price is moving from a overbought status as demonstrated by the channel in the bottom chart. Whether this will continue is unknown, but it seems likely.

Now, let’s look at the TGT 5-year stock price chart.

Target TGT 5-year stock price chart

Target TGT stock price may not reach much higher

It appears that around the $60 level, TGT has difficulty breaking through. Also, for the past several years, TGT appears overbought. At these price levels, I don’t think I would be looking to purchase TGT as it does not appear to have much room to rise, and may – in fact – fall more in price.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

Timmins Gold TGD Nears Buy Price Trigger

Timmins Gold TGD finished the day at $2.43, only $0.03 below its 21-day exponential moving price average of $2.46.

TGD 1-year stock price chart follows:

Timmins Gold TGD 1-year stock price chart

Timmins Gold TGD nears buy price trigger

As you can see from 21-day detrended price oscillator chart, TGD has been below the bottom of the channel, indicating an oversold condition.

The last time this occurred, TGD went from $2.06 to over $3.00 before hitting the sell trigger at $2.63.

Expect overhead price resistance at a little over the $3.00 mark.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

JCPenney JCP: Fantasy Stock Target Price, Fantasy Turnaround Plans

April 2, 2012 1 comment

JCP Chart

JCP data by YCharts

So much chart real estate, so little time over $40.00. Yet, so many stock analysts think JCPenney JCP is a $40.00 plus stock. If you clicked on the link above you’ll find the consensus JCP stock price estimate is $43.00. Yes, $43.00. Take a look at the chart above. how much plus $40.00 JCP stock price days do you see? Not many. Yes, that last price is $35.76. Kind of makes the low-ball $29.00 JCP analyst look a little brainier (or more honest) than the rest.

This kind of maddening stock price analysis is why I want to slap a JCP stock analyst and then slap the stock analyst again.

I’m no Ivy League educated stock guru, but does it take one to read a the JCP stock chart?

I’m not the only one who sees through JCPenney’s lame effort to become the Apple of retailing, everyone’s favorite store, or whatever brain dead slogan they have come up with the help of their army of senior-VP’s recruited from Target.

Steven P Dennis does yeoman’s work analyzing the river of B.S. emanating from the JCPenney corporate communications department here, here, and here.

Yes, nothing makes an old, stodgy and boring retailer like JCPenney more nimble like a whole other layer of VP’s to muck everything up.

But, back to the chart’s, here is a look at the JCP 6-month stock price chart.

JCPenney JCP 6-month stock price chart

JCP: Whee! We're a $40.00 stock and then we're not.

While the price of JCP has slid recently, looking at the 21-day detrended price oscillator at the bottom of the chart, it is currently very oversold, so we should expect it to bounce back somewhat.

It is important to note, however, that JCP has strong overhead price resistance around the $40.00 mark – just where so many stock analyst are convinced it will break through. Why? I’m not sure.

In addition, the JCP stock price fell through the bottom of the purple colored Andrew’s Pitchfork and crossed the white sell trigger line. The sell trigger line and then, the bottom of the Andrew’s Pitchfork, become price resistance.

So, JCP has a long, long way before it even gets close to $40.00.

Now, let’s look at the JCP 5-year chart.

JCPenney JCP 5-year stock price chart

JCP: I see, I see JCP struggle to break forty.

On the 5-year JCP stock price chart, if you look at the white line on the 21-day detrended moving price average chart, you’ll notice JCP has rarely peaked up over the $40.00 price line. Aren’t those JCP stock analysts sunny optimists?!? “This year is going to be the year!” they shout as they lick their giant lollipops and gallop off on their broomstick horses.

In contrast to the 6-month chart, the 5-year chart indicates that long-term the JCP stock price is still overbought. Ouch! So, while we may get a head-fake uptick in price, expect the medium-to-long-term price trend to be down rather than up.

J. C. Penney

J. C. Penney (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Plus, with fantasy concepts such as a “store within a store” which I liken to concentric rings of Hell, JCPenney’s “plan” to revitalize their business with “everyday low prices” is as unbelievable as the stock analysts’ $43.00 JCPenney stock price target.

Sears SHLD Continues Price Slide

April 2, 2012 1 comment

SHLD Chart

SHLD data by YCharts

Despite the recent trip up to over $80.00, Sears SHLD continues to be in a long-term price decline.

But first, let’s look at a 1-year price chart for SHLD.

Sears SHLD 1-year price chart

Sears SHLD stock price rediscovers gravity

As the saying goes, “Gravity is a bitch”. After defying gravity over $80.00, Sears bounced over long-term price resistance represented by the white line. It is now being pulled down into the purple colored Andrew’s Pitchfork below.

The bottom part of the chart is the 21-day detrended price oscillator which basically indicates that Sears was overbought, but has now re-entered the channel, where we might expect it will journey down – eventually – to oversold status should it exit out the bottom of the channel.

Now, for the 5-year SHLD price chart.

Sears SHLD 5-year stock price chart

From the softer side of Sears to the softer side of SHLD stock price

The SHLD 5-year stock price chart reveals Sears has failed multiple times to cross the overhead white price resistance line.

The exterior of a typical Sears Essentials store.

Until, or unless, it manages to convincingly penetrate price resistance, expect Sears to continue its steady price descent long-term. While there may be shorter-term opportunities to trade the stock it doesn’t appear to be a long-term buy and hold opportunity.
Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

Bought McEwen Mining MUX Today

This past Friday, McEwen Mining MUX, hit my buy trigger. Today, I purchased shares at $4.45. MUX closed out the day at $4.52.

MUX Chart

MUX data by YCharts

Thus far, I have liked the way the MUX charts are shaping up.

McEwen Mining MUX 4-2-12

So far, I like the way this MUX chart looks

The 21-day exponential moving price average is currently $4.43. At the bottom of the chart above, the detrended price oscillator has just re-entered the channel. If the yellow line is below the channel, the stock is oversold, above the channel it is overbought.

Pulling out to the MUX 5-year chart provides interesting and useful perspective.

McEwen Mining MUX 5-year chart

McEwen Mining MUX is in a long-term price uptrend

As you can see from the detrended price oscillator MUX was wildly overbought for an extended period of time, but more recently re-entered the channel.

MUX is in a long-term price uptrend. With one exception, the price has stayed with the Andrew’s Pitchfork.

There is fairly strong overhead resistance at the $6.00 level, and again around $7.50.

My plan is to sell this stock once it drops below the 21-day detrended moving price average. Should I change my mind, which I doubt, I will post an update.

Given the resilience in gold and silver prices, the relative under-performance of junior mining stocks to  the price of silver and gold, and the general poor state of the world economy, I would think that eventually MUX and other junior mining stocks would get a nice bounce.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

McEwen Mining (MUX) Hits Buy Trigger

March 31, 2012 1 comment

I have been following McEwen Mining (MUX) the past few days on the blog. Today it just hit my buy trigger closing at $4.44, two cents above the 21-day exponential moving price average of $4.42. I will be looking to purchase Monday morning.

MUX Price Chart 3-30-12

MUX hits buy trigger

MUX has been in a long-term uptrend as you can see from the 5-year chart that follows.

More recently, during the past year, MUX has been staying within the bounds of an ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork. Each time the price has neared the bottom of the pitchfork, it has bounced either on the bottom of the pitchfork, or off the white sell trigger line.

The detrended 21-day exponential price oscillator had dropped below the bottom of the channel, but has now just climbed back within it.

Overall, I am anticipating MUX to continue to move upward in price.

MUX 5-year price chart

MUX, long-term, is in an upward price trend

As stated previously, MUX has been in a long-term upward price trend as seen in the chart to the left. It had reached a seriously overbought level as evidenced by the 21-day exponential moving price average remaining outside the top of its channel for a prolonged period of time.

However, more recently MUX has re-entered the price channel. For purposes of determining whether to purchase MUX or not the upper chart covering the past year is more relevant – as far as the buy trigger, than the longer-term chart.

Overhead price resistance is visible around the white lines at approximately $6.00 and $7.50.

Mux price chart

A different chart perspective on MUX price

The next chart (in black and white) provides a slightly different perspective on MUX.

It shows that MUX temporarily dipped below a sell trigger, but then crossed above that trigger and has now-re-entered the ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork. The price also managed to break above a downtrend that had been in place before March began.

My current strategy is to purchase MUX with a limit order of $4.50 per share. I will look to sell should MUX close below the 21-day moving average. Should this strategy change I will post an update.

MUX Chart

MUX data by YCharts

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

McEwen Mining (MUX) Watch this Space

March 29, 2012 2 comments

Image

Despite the recent drop in price, McEwen Mining (MUX) is still within the upward trending Andrew’s Pitchfork.

The detrended 21-day price oscillator is still near the zero line.

Should the price close above the 21-day exponential moving average (the blue line on the price chart), I plan on pulling the trigger on this one.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.