Posts Tagged ‘prediction’

Bitcoin Bounce

September 15, 2017 Leave a comment


With Bitcoin bouncing from a low near 3000 to above 3700, is it time to get excited about a big, fast recovery in price? Let’s examine some important levels to see where important resistance comes into play.

The biggest hurdle for the bitcoin price is dual-resistance at 3629.34 and 3907.00. Breaking 3629.34 is just the first step as this is dual-resistance. Even breaking above 3907.00 doesn’t by any means guarantee the price will continue to move higher. In fact, it isn’t uncommon for price to temporarily move above dual-resistance before a rally fails and moves down either between the dual-resistance levels or below both of them.

If we assume, for the sake of argument, that the Bitcoin price breaks and holds above dual-resistance then we should consider the following Murrey Math Price Grid:

8/8 – 5000

7/8 – 4843.75

6/8 – 4687.50

5/8 – 4531.25

4/8 – 4375

3/8 – 4218.75

2/8 – 4062.50

1/8 – 3906.25

0/8 – 3750

Should price break above dual-resistance, or 3629.34 and 3907.00, then this also bring into play the 1/8 or 3906.25 Murrey Math Level. If that level holds, then a move to 4375 becomes possible.

However, the larger Bitcoin price context should be considered:

8/8 – 10000

7/8 – 8750

6/8 – 7500

5/8 – 6250

4/8 – 5000

3/8 – 3750

2/8 – 2500

1/8 – 1250

0/8 – 0

The above price grid is discussed in the Bitcoin Price Road-Map. In that post the analysis indicated that price would rise above 5000 (it did) and then move back toward 2500 to 2700 (still in process).

The 3/8 or 3750 price level above is an important, but weak level. Breaking above 3750 and holding can be significant, but it is quite common for price to move above the 3/8 level and then fail and drop from there. This may be what we see with price action today.

Should the rally weaken today and price fail to move strongly above 3750 then we should consider the following levels to guide us:

5/5 – 3351.68

4/5 – 3155.34

3/5 – 2959.004

2/5 – 2762.66

1/5 – 2566.32

0/5 – 2369.99

Dual-support using the price grid above is 2566.32 and 2762.66. Hitting those levels would essentially represent a successful forecast of the Bitcoin price moving from near the 5000 level to the 2500 to 2700 range. Once price hits 2500 to 2700, the expectation, based on cycle analysis, is that Bitcoin will begin to make a move toward 10000. Don’t be surprised if Bitcoin overshoots 2500 to 2700 to the downside. Equally, don’t be surprised if price rallies extremely rapidly anywhere around 2500 to 2700. Dual-support, in this case 2566.32 to 2762.66, tends to be strong, so we shouldn’t necessarily expect a sustained price push below those levels.

Bottom Line: The Bitcoin Price Bounce may just be a relief rally and not sustainable. Expectation remains that price moves toward 2500 to 2700.




Successful Price Prediction Forecasts With Probable Price Range (PPR)

August 21, 2017 Leave a comment

If you have looked around this site and seen all of the Probable Price Ranges you may be wondering whether or not they work. The short answer is yes.


The criteria for determining whether the PPR is successful (TRUE) or not (FALSE) is as follows:

Does the entire probable price range fall within the the actual price range for the day and/or did the closing price fall within the Probable Price Range for that day.

If either one or both of these are true, then the PPR is considered TRUE or successful.

While some argue that price is a random walk, it isn’t nearly as random as some would have you believe. Yes, the daily direction appears random, but the longer than daily moves begin to fall into more clearly defined ranges.

While it isn’t recommended that you use the Probable Price Range as your only tool, it is quite useful as another tool in your tool box to help determine not only the direction of price, but potentially the overall extent of possible moves on a daily basis.

In addition, in a later post, we can discuss other tools such as Balanced Price Ranges (covering longer time periods) and Positive/Negative Ratios and Negative/Positive Ratios which can provide signals that price may reverse its current direction. Balanced Ranges can also provide signals when the actual price rises above or falls below the Balanced Range.

Click here to learn the basic elements behind the Probable Price Range (PPR).
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