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Posts Tagged ‘Price channels’

Sears (SHLD) Stock Price not Done Falling

March 30, 2012 3 comments

A few days back I wrote how the long-term price trend for Sears (SHLD) was down.

Old logo of Sears

Old logo of Sears (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Especially, looking at a shorter-term chart, SHLD looks like it going to decline further in price.

SHLD 3-29-12

What's in the basement of Sears? Could be their stock price.

SHLD couldn’t break through the overhead price resistance of $80.00+ and headed lower. As you can see on the chart, SHLD had been in an ascending price “channel”. However, today, it fell out of that channel. Furthermore, the SHLD 21-day detrended price oscillator had climbed out of its channel and now appears poised to re-enter it and decline further. This should put SHLD price back within the downward pointing Andrew’s pitchfork where it would be reasonable to think the price would continue a slow decline.

Pulling the stock chart view all the way back 5 years provides some interesting perspective.

SHLD 5-year chart 3-29-12

Long-term, SHLD price trend is down

SHLD has not been able to break through and stay above the white price resistance line. It’s pretty remarkable when you see that the line that in the first chart appears rather briefly stretches back a full 5 years.

It’s also quite interesting that SHLD, stayed below its 21-day exponential moving price average for a number of years – yes years!

The detrended price oscillator looks different on the 5-year chart. SHLD only recently re-entered the channel, but could fall back out of it again.

However, I think whether or not SHLD falls below that channel or stays within it, the more important chart feature is that white line representing overhead price resistance steadily dropping over time. Until and unless SHLD finds a way to convincingly break through that line, the long-term downward price trend remains in place.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

 

JCP Stock Chart: Keep Slapping the JCP Stock Analyst

March 27, 2012 6 comments

In an earlier post about JCPenney I asked if it was time to slap your stock analyst. With all the analysts calling for JCP to rise to $40.00 or above, it isn’t too surprising that several people have found their way to my articles on JCP using a variation of the search term “is JCP stock price falling?” The short answer is yes.

Perhaps the more relevant question is, will the JCP stock price continue to fall. A few charts might help us decide.

JCP Stock Price Chart 3-26-12

JCP stock price continues to trend down

Looking at the first chart above, it is actually quite stunning that anyone is asking if JCP is falling in price as it has been in a declining channel for over a month.

On the chart, JCP has fallen through bottom support in the Andrew’s Pitchfork, as well as through the sell trigger line. It is now in a declining price channel. The only question is, How long will JCP remain in that declining price channel?” Perhaps the next chart will at least give us an idea.

JCP 3-month chart

JCP 3-month chart

The above JCP chart, looks quite similar to the previous chart. This chart is only a 3-month chart. Note that overhead price resistance is approximately $42.00.

Probably the most noteworthy feature of the above chart is the detrended 21-day exponential moving average. When JCP took that giant jump in price, the detrended price oscillator jumped out of the channel it had been in and stayed outside it for around a month.

The detrended price oscillator is currently outside the bottom of the channel now and has been there for about two weeks. So, it is possible it could remain outside the channel for a bit longer.

For the JCP stock price to begin rising it is going to have to break through quite a few resistance levels on the chart including:

  • The declining price channel
  • The sell trigger line which now provides overhead resistance
  • The bottom of the Andrew’s Pitchfork

Aside from the whole JCPenney as the Apple of retailing meme, there are some serious  issues to be overcome on this chart before we can seriously talk about an increase in the JCP stock price.

In the meantime, if you see one of the JCP stock analysts calling for a $40.00 price target, be sure to slap them for me.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.