Posts Tagged ‘stock charts’

JCPenney (JCP) is a Bad AAPL

April 9, 2012 4 comments

How much absolute crap has the public been fed about how JCPenney (JCP) was going to miraculously transform themselves into the AAPL of retailing? JCP was going to become our favorite place to shop, or some, B.S. But, it is looking more and more like all of the buy-side stock analysts that urged suckers, er investors, to purchase JCP stock and ride it all the way up to $40 or $42 per share were full of baloney. Seems to me that you can’t have junk, or crap, if you don’t have JCP.

To see how ludicrous predicting a plus $40 JCP stock price, take a look at the JCP 5-year stock price chart.

JCPenney JCP 5-year stock price chart

Apparently, stock analysts calling for $40 plus JCP stock price never saw this chart

After all, with the huge economic boom brought about by quantitative easing Helicopter Ben Bernanke and the boys at the Federal Reserve, why wouldn’t JCP stock reach into the heavens?

Instead, Icarus-like, JCP stock price got a little too close to the sun and is now falling back to earth.

JCPenney JCP 3-month stock price chart

JCP: But the stock analyst said it would go to over $40 per share...

I hate being lied to and I find it annoying when people can’t see the obvious. What in the world would make anyone believe that JCP and AAPL should be spoken in the same breath, much less that JCP will somehow transform its snoozapalooza anchor mall locations into Apple Stores?

Who came up with the crank concept of creating “a store within a store”? I prefer to call the strategy concentric circles of hell, but that’s me.

If I were in charge of JCPenney I would have closed down the unprofitable and marginal stores and remodeled every one of the crap mall locations like I have in my town. Instead of the traditional “rat searches for a piece of cheese strategy” whereby JCPenney makes its poor customers wander around aimlessly hoping to encounter what they are looking for, I would make it easy to shop there. The store would be open with signs indicating each department – not “store within a store”.

Employees would have a distinctive uniform in order to separate them from customers. Employees would not be allowed to hide from customers while they attempted to look busy folding clothes. In fact, employees would be required – in a not-too-aggressive manner – to make contact within second with each customer who came into their department. There would be something akin to a shopping assistant who would be certain to ask you if you found what you were looking for today, and if you answered “no” would offer to order the item and have it either shipped to the store or to your home. Cash registers would be clearly labeled and colored distinctively so they stood out from anywhere in the store.

When customer checked out they would again be asked if they found the items they were looking for. If not, there would be a kiosk-type display where an employee would find the item and offer to order it or – if the item was in stock – would go pick it up and bring it back to you.

Old line retailers like JCPenney, big box retailers like Lowe’s lose incalculable sums of money because they treat customer more like a nuisance than like the lifeblood of their business.

JCPenney’s silly junk marketing of everyday low prices, and crap ideas of becoming Apple are beyond wishful thinking. There is almost no hope that JCPenney will ever, ever, ever come close to achieving those ridiculous ideas. JCPenney could, however, offer a pleasant shopping experience with excellent customer service and grow its incremental sales. That is a tried and true method that, combined with taking advantage of the Internet, could prevent JCPenney from eventually meeting with the fate that awaits Sears and K-Mart. However, I doubt the CEO and many Senior Vice-Presidents will take the time to look at what really might work, and will instead continue to pump AAPL pie-in-the-sky ideas while watching JCP stock slide.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

Did Going “Soft” Kill Sears (SHLD)?

April 9, 2012 2 comments

First, a look at the five-year chart for SHLD.

Sears SHLD 5-year stock price chart

Sears SHLD and its 5-year dis-engagement

The slide in Sears has been rather impressive. It seems like only a few short years ago they were being lauded for their “brilliant” strategy of promoting soft lines, like clothing. Then they expanded even more, including grocery items and more. I suppose the idea was to capture the entire family business with the stereotypical male going for the hardware items such as Craftsman tools, the the stereotypical female purchasing clothes, groceries, appliances, etc.

In reaching for an ever-larger percentage of the family shopping basket, it appears Sears has lost more and more of it.

Sears now is selling its premium brand Craftsman tools, riding lawn mowers, etc. at steep discounts.

This has been going on since at least before Christmas. Our local Sears sits in a huge new building and includes an automotive center. Almost any day you can go there a see very few people inside, and even fewer buying very much. The soft good are OK, but nothing to get excited about. Tools have been heavily discounted for the past several months. The electronics section is a real yawner, poorly organized, over-priced, with few items to get excited about. It is not surprising at all then, with this as background, what the 1-year SHLD stock price chart looks like.

Sears SHLD 1-year stock price chart

Did going "soft" kill Sears?

After a relatively brief period of overbought insanity, SHLD bounced off the declining white price resistance line and is now heading back to earth.

It appears that SHLD may over-correct into oversold territory, knocking the stock price down further.

In light of the steep discounts on its premium Craftsman line, it appears Sears is in trouble. If Sears does ultimately fail, or becomes a pale shadow of its former self, it will likely be because Sears tried to be too many things to too many people. Going “soft” may kill Sears.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

Timmins Gold TGD Nears Buy Price Trigger

Timmins Gold TGD finished the day at $2.43, only $0.03 below its 21-day exponential moving price average of $2.46.

TGD 1-year stock price chart follows:

Timmins Gold TGD 1-year stock price chart

Timmins Gold TGD nears buy price trigger

As you can see from 21-day detrended price oscillator chart, TGD has been below the bottom of the channel, indicating an oversold condition.

The last time this occurred, TGD went from $2.06 to over $3.00 before hitting the sell trigger at $2.63.

Expect overhead price resistance at a little over the $3.00 mark.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

JCPenney JCP: Fantasy Stock Target Price, Fantasy Turnaround Plans

April 2, 2012 1 comment

JCP Chart

JCP data by YCharts

So much chart real estate, so little time over $40.00. Yet, so many stock analysts think JCPenney JCP is a $40.00 plus stock. If you clicked on the link above you’ll find the consensus JCP stock price estimate is $43.00. Yes, $43.00. Take a look at the chart above. how much plus $40.00 JCP stock price days do you see? Not many. Yes, that last price is $35.76. Kind of makes the low-ball $29.00 JCP analyst look a little brainier (or more honest) than the rest.

This kind of maddening stock price analysis is why I want to slap a JCP stock analyst and then slap the stock analyst again.

I’m no Ivy League educated stock guru, but does it take one to read a the JCP stock chart?

I’m not the only one who sees through JCPenney’s lame effort to become the Apple of retailing, everyone’s favorite store, or whatever brain dead slogan they have come up with the help of their army of senior-VP’s recruited from Target.

Steven P Dennis does yeoman’s work analyzing the river of B.S. emanating from the JCPenney corporate communications department here, here, and here.

Yes, nothing makes an old, stodgy and boring retailer like JCPenney more nimble like a whole other layer of VP’s to muck everything up.

But, back to the chart’s, here is a look at the JCP 6-month stock price chart.

JCPenney JCP 6-month stock price chart

JCP: Whee! We're a $40.00 stock and then we're not.

While the price of JCP has slid recently, looking at the 21-day detrended price oscillator at the bottom of the chart, it is currently very oversold, so we should expect it to bounce back somewhat.

It is important to note, however, that JCP has strong overhead price resistance around the $40.00 mark – just where so many stock analyst are convinced it will break through. Why? I’m not sure.

In addition, the JCP stock price fell through the bottom of the purple colored Andrew’s Pitchfork and crossed the white sell trigger line. The sell trigger line and then, the bottom of the Andrew’s Pitchfork, become price resistance.

So, JCP has a long, long way before it even gets close to $40.00.

Now, let’s look at the JCP 5-year chart.

JCPenney JCP 5-year stock price chart

JCP: I see, I see JCP struggle to break forty.

On the 5-year JCP stock price chart, if you look at the white line on the 21-day detrended moving price average chart, you’ll notice JCP has rarely peaked up over the $40.00 price line. Aren’t those JCP stock analysts sunny optimists?!? “This year is going to be the year!” they shout as they lick their giant lollipops and gallop off on their broomstick horses.

In contrast to the 6-month chart, the 5-year chart indicates that long-term the JCP stock price is still overbought. Ouch! So, while we may get a head-fake uptick in price, expect the medium-to-long-term price trend to be down rather than up.

J. C. Penney

J. C. Penney (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Plus, with fantasy concepts such as a “store within a store” which I liken to concentric rings of Hell, JCPenney’s “plan” to revitalize their business with “everyday low prices” is as unbelievable as the stock analysts’ $43.00 JCPenney stock price target.

Sears SHLD Continues Price Slide

April 2, 2012 1 comment

SHLD Chart

SHLD data by YCharts

Despite the recent trip up to over $80.00, Sears SHLD continues to be in a long-term price decline.

But first, let’s look at a 1-year price chart for SHLD.

Sears SHLD 1-year price chart

Sears SHLD stock price rediscovers gravity

As the saying goes, “Gravity is a bitch”. After defying gravity over $80.00, Sears bounced over long-term price resistance represented by the white line. It is now being pulled down into the purple colored Andrew’s Pitchfork below.

The bottom part of the chart is the 21-day detrended price oscillator which basically indicates that Sears was overbought, but has now re-entered the channel, where we might expect it will journey down – eventually – to oversold status should it exit out the bottom of the channel.

Now, for the 5-year SHLD price chart.

Sears SHLD 5-year stock price chart

From the softer side of Sears to the softer side of SHLD stock price

The SHLD 5-year stock price chart reveals Sears has failed multiple times to cross the overhead white price resistance line.

The exterior of a typical Sears Essentials store.

Until, or unless, it manages to convincingly penetrate price resistance, expect Sears to continue its steady price descent long-term. While there may be shorter-term opportunities to trade the stock it doesn’t appear to be a long-term buy and hold opportunity.
Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

Bought McEwen Mining MUX Today

This past Friday, McEwen Mining MUX, hit my buy trigger. Today, I purchased shares at $4.45. MUX closed out the day at $4.52.

MUX Chart

MUX data by YCharts

Thus far, I have liked the way the MUX charts are shaping up.

McEwen Mining MUX 4-2-12

So far, I like the way this MUX chart looks

The 21-day exponential moving price average is currently $4.43. At the bottom of the chart above, the detrended price oscillator has just re-entered the channel. If the yellow line is below the channel, the stock is oversold, above the channel it is overbought.

Pulling out to the MUX 5-year chart provides interesting and useful perspective.

McEwen Mining MUX 5-year chart

McEwen Mining MUX is in a long-term price uptrend

As you can see from the detrended price oscillator MUX was wildly overbought for an extended period of time, but more recently re-entered the channel.

MUX is in a long-term price uptrend. With one exception, the price has stayed with the Andrew’s Pitchfork.

There is fairly strong overhead resistance at the $6.00 level, and again around $7.50.

My plan is to sell this stock once it drops below the 21-day detrended moving price average. Should I change my mind, which I doubt, I will post an update.

Given the resilience in gold and silver prices, the relative under-performance of junior mining stocks to  the price of silver and gold, and the general poor state of the world economy, I would think that eventually MUX and other junior mining stocks would get a nice bounce.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 

McEwen Mining (MUX) Hits Buy Trigger

March 31, 2012 1 comment

I have been following McEwen Mining (MUX) the past few days on the blog. Today it just hit my buy trigger closing at $4.44, two cents above the 21-day exponential moving price average of $4.42. I will be looking to purchase Monday morning.

MUX Price Chart 3-30-12

MUX hits buy trigger

MUX has been in a long-term uptrend as you can see from the 5-year chart that follows.

More recently, during the past year, MUX has been staying within the bounds of an ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork. Each time the price has neared the bottom of the pitchfork, it has bounced either on the bottom of the pitchfork, or off the white sell trigger line.

The detrended 21-day exponential price oscillator had dropped below the bottom of the channel, but has now just climbed back within it.

Overall, I am anticipating MUX to continue to move upward in price.

MUX 5-year price chart

MUX, long-term, is in an upward price trend

As stated previously, MUX has been in a long-term upward price trend as seen in the chart to the left. It had reached a seriously overbought level as evidenced by the 21-day exponential moving price average remaining outside the top of its channel for a prolonged period of time.

However, more recently MUX has re-entered the price channel. For purposes of determining whether to purchase MUX or not the upper chart covering the past year is more relevant – as far as the buy trigger, than the longer-term chart.

Overhead price resistance is visible around the white lines at approximately $6.00 and $7.50.

Mux price chart

A different chart perspective on MUX price

The next chart (in black and white) provides a slightly different perspective on MUX.

It shows that MUX temporarily dipped below a sell trigger, but then crossed above that trigger and has now-re-entered the ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork. The price also managed to break above a downtrend that had been in place before March began.

My current strategy is to purchase MUX with a limit order of $4.50 per share. I will look to sell should MUX close below the 21-day moving average. Should this strategy change I will post an update.

MUX Chart

MUX data by YCharts

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.

RIMM Reversal of Fortune

March 30, 2012 1 comment

As a former BlackBerry user, I have watched with fascination as Research in Motion (RIMM) has managed to lose its position as market leader.

Image representing Research In Motion as depic...

Image via CrunchBase

Unfortunately, for the RIMM stock price, the company has waited for too long to face the grim facts.

Research in Motion’s inability to face the challenges that faced it, led to a dramatic reversal of fortune. First, let’s look at the shorter-term chart.

RIMM Short-Term Chart 3-29-12

RIMM's declining stock chart

For a short time it looked as if RIMM might bounce off the bottom and begin to ascend in price. However, RIMM dropped through support and is now in a descending price channel.

The view is even more dramatic looking back over the past year.

RIMM 1-Year Chart 3-29-12

RIMM's stock price decline this past year has been spectacular

Who could have seen this coming? Well, perhaps, those who switched from BlackBerry to an iPhone or Android phone. Oh yeah, and Reggie Middleton.

Sears (SHLD) Stock Price not Done Falling

March 30, 2012 3 comments

A few days back I wrote how the long-term price trend for Sears (SHLD) was down.

Old logo of Sears

Old logo of Sears (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Especially, looking at a shorter-term chart, SHLD looks like it going to decline further in price.

SHLD 3-29-12

What's in the basement of Sears? Could be their stock price.

SHLD couldn’t break through the overhead price resistance of $80.00+ and headed lower. As you can see on the chart, SHLD had been in an ascending price “channel”. However, today, it fell out of that channel. Furthermore, the SHLD 21-day detrended price oscillator had climbed out of its channel and now appears poised to re-enter it and decline further. This should put SHLD price back within the downward pointing Andrew’s pitchfork where it would be reasonable to think the price would continue a slow decline.

Pulling the stock chart view all the way back 5 years provides some interesting perspective.

SHLD 5-year chart 3-29-12

Long-term, SHLD price trend is down

SHLD has not been able to break through and stay above the white price resistance line. It’s pretty remarkable when you see that the line that in the first chart appears rather briefly stretches back a full 5 years.

It’s also quite interesting that SHLD, stayed below its 21-day exponential moving price average for a number of years – yes years!

The detrended price oscillator looks different on the 5-year chart. SHLD only recently re-entered the channel, but could fall back out of it again.

However, I think whether or not SHLD falls below that channel or stays within it, the more important chart feature is that white line representing overhead price resistance steadily dropping over time. Until and unless SHLD finds a way to convincingly break through that line, the long-term downward price trend remains in place.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor. 


JCPenney (JCP): Analyze This

March 30, 2012 2 comments
Would you buy a stock from this guy?

In light of the incredible falling price of JCPenney (JCP) stock, you might want to slap one of the stock “analysts” who set a target price for JCP of over $40.00. Then, slap the analyst again, for giving the stock a buy or hold rating. The fact is  many of these analysts are merely working the makeup counter for PigsRUs.

Buy side analysts often have some sort of vested interest in the stock. A buy side analyst working for a mutual fund or investment management company typically owns the stock he or she is covering.

(Read more:

To me, it seems a bit like a potential sucker (er, customer) walking into a used car dealer and asking the liar (er, car salesman) anything about a car. Of course every car was driven by a little old lady, who only went to the grocery store once a week to buy Alpo for her and her dog. She polished the car every day with a cloth diaper and had all the recommended maintenance done on schedule. Or was the car owned by a hot-rodding teenager who liked to burn rubber and had no idea that you had to change the oil?

Anyhow, it doesn’t take the razor-sharp skills of a buy side analyst to look at JCP. Just go to your local JCPenney. Is there anything exciting about the experience without a giant discount off the price of the merchandise? Do you wake up Saturday morning and the first thought that goes through your mind is, “Yippee, I’m going to JCPenney”?.

Does anyone really think you can re-imagine JCPenney any more than you can visualize world peace?

You might think iPhones have little to do with selling housewares. But to hear Johnson tell it, it’s all about the mind-set and how a company approaches its customers. In a conference call, there were plenty of distinctively Apple-esque phrases used — “re-imagine,” “think differently” and “work creatively” to name a few.

The idea that Apple and JCPenney have anything to do with each other is absurd. Short of a going out of business sale, what is JCP going to do that is going to get a crowd of people wrapped around the block before the doors open. “Man, I can’t wait. JCP just got the latest shipment of Dockers!”

Steven P Dennis offers up some of the best analysis and criticism of JCPenney’s new strategy.

In Part 1 Dennis takes apart the pricing strategy:

First of all, unlike Nordstrom, every promotional retailer like Penney’s (and Sears and Macy’s and Bed, Bath & Beyond, etc.) has taught their customers–over many, many years–that their “regular” price is a sucker price. Reversing this perception will not happen quickly, no matter how creative your new ad campaign is and no matter how much money you throw at it in the first few months.

In Part 2 Dennis takes apart the re-invention of JCPenney:

While I have no doubt that Penney’s can benefit from many of the leadership lessons and certain tactical aspects of Apple’s retail strategy, Penney’s ain’t Apple. It’s a lot easier to build retail stores around products that are in high demand, have limited distribution and “fixed” high margins. Apple is a single brand specialty store with a clear tribe of loyalists, not a multi-brand, multi-category store serving an incredibly diverse set of customers.  Apple is vertically integrated and the stores benefit directly from total brand advertising–and a ton of buzz. All of Apple’s stores are in “A” real estate locations and have a tight prototype and are not unit intensive. The list goes on and on.

In Part 3 Dennis looks at the slick marketing versus the sad reality of JCPenney stores:

In the short-term, the work of marketing is to get the target customers’ butts in the store (or drive them to the website). I suspect the new campaign IS elevating interest in JCP and starting to drive incremental traffic. Yet while Penney’s has improved their presentation markedly, the stark reality is that both the product assortments and overall experience are still pretty much the same–i.e. unremarkable in most instances. And unlike Apple and Target, Penney’s store fleet is a grab bag of some very good locations with a whole bunch of mediocre and lousy ones.

We all know that when the invitation is better than the party, we aren’t very likely to get fooled the next time around.

It’s not likely that once customers get pushed to the local JCPenney by the latest Ellen Degeneres ad, that they will be dancing in the aisles.

The latest JCP charts aren’t anything to get excited about either.

JCP Chart 3-29-12

Hey JCP, $40 is the other way!

JCP stock price still is below the sell trigger line and also within a downward-trending price channel. I don’t care what Herb Tarlek the buy side analyst says, the price of JCP will go down until it manages to break out of the current chart pattern.

JCP stock price still falling

JCP: No dancing in the aisles here

So, despite what Herb Tarlek buy side analyst might say, and despite the star power of Ellen Degeneres, the JCP stock price is going down. How long the downward trend continues remains to be seen, but the charts are clear. You don’t need to be a stock analyst or an expert on retailing to see that it won’t be easy for JCP to hit the $40.00 target analysts are expecting. Just go down to your local JCPenney and compare the vibe to an Apple Store or even the local Target. Trust your gut. Use your common sense. That’s something Herb the buy side analyst will likely never do.

Disclaimer: The above is for informational purposes only. This should not be considered investment advice. Any investment decisions are your own and should be made after conducting your own independent research and / or in consultation with a professional investment advisor.